Commentary:
“In a world still marked by bitter conflicts, such as the Ukraine-Russia war, it is essential to be aware of the affirmation of China as a new economic pillar and the increasingly peripheral role of an Europe that cannot keep up with the unstoppable technological development in China. Jakub Grygiel, thanks to his extensive knowledge in the geopolitical and economic fields, offered us interesting reflections on the changes that the world is facing and how they will affect our society.”
We talked to Jakub Grygiel about the development of the Ukraine-Russia conflict, the future of NATO from a European perspective, the influence of the pope in today’s society and the unstoppable economical and political power of China.
- How would you describe your occupation and what studies did you do to get there?
I am a professor of political science at the Catholic University in Washington where I teach international business, that is a more specific area of political science. I attended a classical highschool in Rome and then after graduation I went to the United States, I did four years of university there at the end of which I obtained my degree in international affairs, then I got my master’s degree, my doctorate, and I ultimately decided to stay in the United States becoming a professor of political science.
- In your opinion, what are the most important geopolitical issues at this moment and why?
Obviously the war in Ukraine is on the front pages of all newspapers. It Is a war that is changing all diplomatic relations, not only in Europe, but also in Asia, China, Russia, and North Korea that sent 30,000 Koreans to fight on the side of Russia. It is therefore a seemingly regional war, which may seem small, but is changing many diplomatic situations elsewhere.
- Last year, you wrote an article for Limes, the magazine of Lucio Caracciolo, entitled “Cuscinetto ucraino secondo L’America”. Could you explain how the conflict has evolved from August of last year to today, particularly as a result of the new US policy on military aid to Ukraine.
The main change has been that with Trump’s arrival as president in January there was a huge push to end the conflict. Trump has always wanted to end the conflict as he said during his election campaign. The way he Is doing It so far seems with many pressures on Ukraine that obviously does not want to compromise, especially territory wise. There was a somewhat dramatic meeting between Zelensky and Trump that was seen on the news and on television, now it seems that he has cut off some military and intelligence aid. It also seems that the US does not give certain information to Ukraine which Is creating problems. Basically it is a pressure on Zelensky to come to a territorial compromise and to stop being the head of Ukraine.
- In your opinion, do conditions for reaching a fair agreement that will end the conflict exist? what would they be?
Fair no, meaning that they will not return to the situation that existed before the war which would be a fair situation, because Russia has attacked Ukraine. Ukraine will probably have to give some territories to Russia. I do not know if they will also de jure from the legal point of view, maybe not, but in any way Ukraine will not succeed in regaining certain territories, such as the Crimea that it lost in 2014. So if there is a treaty I do not know how it will define those territories, if they are lost forever de jure or only de facto. And then the main question for me is not so much the territories, but who will help Ukraine after the end of the war. From now on if Ukraine will continue to be armed by the west, and who will help its economy are questions that depend more on Europe than the United States in my opinion, because it is clear that the United States does not want under Trump, but also under other presidents, to be the one who practically paies eternally for Ukraine. So if Europe can agree on financial funds to help the Ukrainian economy, then there is a result. But that is obviously not a part of the negotiations with Russia, Russia does not care, so that is a part of the negotiations that will be made between Ukraine and the West.
- Given the influence of the US on world balances and given the foreign policy intentions of the new administration: NATO could survive without America, what is the European perspective?
Well no, NATO cannot survive without the US by definition, because it is the North Atlantic treaty. So if the north Atlantic side is missing it becomes a European alliance only. Only the European Union and Canada, which is not a military power, would remain, so NATO without the United States does not exist. It becomes a purely European alliance, I do not know how it would be defined, but it would be the military part of the European Union, if you can say so. If Europe can survive on its own? I think not, militarily no, because it has not been able to do so for a hundred years. So Europe without the US has never been able to maintain its regional budget. And then I think that Europe without the United States would be divided, it would not be able to maintain even the minimum unity that there is now, because there would obviously be larger powers and smaller ones, France, England which are nuclear powers for example, could have much more political power over other countries, which obviously creates tensions within Europe. So the presence of the United States has mitigated and calmed the inter-European divisions that have always existed.
- What role will China play in this new political system?
China is already quite important from two points of view. Firstly, It Is on the side of Russia, and it is the first time that China or Asian countries have a military presence. It is the first time that the Asian states are fighting on the European continent. European powers used to go to fight in Asia, from Vasco da Gama onwards. Now it is the opposite, which already indicates a change of Chinese people. Secondly, from an economic point of view, there Is a huge Chinese penetration. One of the shocking things when one comes to Italy Is how many Chinese cars there are around. I do not know if you notice it, here it is full of Chinese cars. In the US no. If Europe does not block these penetration, China will probably continue to develop and control the European market. The European economy is practically dependent on China, both for exports and imports. So much of the European industry will be virtually destroyed because it was conquered by the Chinese industry. The European car industry, for example, has been weakened; German and Italian cars, which were the main motor vehicle industries, are less and less, while Chinese ones are always more. Five years ago before Covid It was not like this, so this change has occurred in the last five, maybe ten years, and has obviously decreased the power of the European industry. If we continue like this, the European industry will disappear. In short, it is amazing, in my opinion, the economic conquest of Europe by China.
- How would the possible election of a new pope affect the world order that we have talked about?
I do not know if the world balance can be influenced so much by the pope, especially because it is not the cold war in which the difference was mainly an ideological difference and in that ideological difference the pope had a major role, John Paul II especially, who entered that ideological conflict by taking sides and certainly not on the side of communism. Now the difference between two sides of the market is not so much ideological but economical and therefore it is much more difficult for a pope to take sides, because basically they both have similar problems. The West has its ideological moral problems and China has its autocratic political problems. It is possible that a pope still has a role but not like in the 80’s and 90’s. In my opinion the mistake of Pope Francis was to make a treaty, which until today is not known, between the Vatican and China, The treaty seems to allow the Chinese state, for example, to appoint bishops, or certainly to approve or veto the bishops, and this gives a certain power to China over the Catholic Church. In my opinion, this was an error, because he gave China kind of an imprimatur of the Pope. In short, it took away the possibility of criticizing China by allowing communist China to appoint bishops. He has not given this possibility to the United States, France or Italy or any other country. So he took away the possibility of criticizing China from the ideological point of view, giving it control over the Catholic Church.
- So we can say that the economical, political and social backbone is moving from the West more to the East, so from America to China and Russia? What are the effects of this change on society?
To Russia I do not know, certainly from the economic point of view no, but to China yes.
The shift is affecting Europe more than the US. The European economy has not been doing well for ten years. Germany has not been growing for two years, I think. So from an economic point of view, yes, China has certainly developed in the last ten, twenty years and It has changed the global order that is moving from Europe to China. The US, however, is still very strong from an economic point of view. Yes, there are problems, obviously, the market can go down, maybe there will be recessions for a couple of months and so on, but from the point of view of technological and industrial development, the United States does not have such big problems as Europe.
The risk for society is the spread of political repression and therefore also of speech. China is an authoritarian state and in some ways also a totalitarian one. The difference is that “totalitarian” means It wants to control everything, “authoritarian” wants to control the economy, politics and does not want to allow changes. Totalitarianism means that it also wants to control your thoughts, religion, and studies. China is certainly going in that direction because it has an authoritarian regime built on technology, so you can’t go to China and write things on the internet about Tiananmen of ’89. The search is immediately deleted and you are caught. So the risk of China’s economic expansion is that this technological control will expand. So for example if you are on X or Instagram, certain things that you can’t do in China, you won’t be able to do here either because the platform is the same. The awareness of the power of China is noticeable because the governments of countries heavily dependent on China no longer criticize certain behaviors of the Chinese state, for example regarding the concentration camps of the Uyghurs. The Uyghurs are an ethnic group that is oppressed by the Chinese because they are seen as separatists. So they lock them up in concentration camps, destroy their mosques and destroy their ethnic life. But today some governments no longer criticize China for that and in addition, for example, do not recognize Taiwan as an independent state. The more the Chinese influence widens the more these limitations and controls will spread to other countries, which I find very dangerous.
Another aspect that could affect everyday life is that China collects a lot of information about what you do. For example, Chinese cars are criticized because they collect information. This information in the hands of an authoritarian state can be used for economic reasons but also to see what you think. The main objective is to control what you do, write and think in such a way that the algorithm will provide you with information that will counter your opinions. There were studies on TikTok that show that the algorithm in China is different from the US one. On American TikTok they always send to young people videos of violence while in China of mathematics. So Chinese children are taught math while the American ones are shown violence and pornography which ruin their psychology. So what do they want? Control and influence. But for what purpose? to destroy society. And for what reasons? To benefit their society instead.
If a 7-8 years old child begins to see so much violence it damages his psyche. It destroys for example the trust in society that is a kind of glue that keeps us together. And for what purpose? To make society weaker. Watching violence also makes people more violent. So this could also be linked to the rate of violence in the USA. Another mechanism for gathering information is the studying of DNA through Chinese technologies such as “23 and me” that have as their most evil purpose, from what I understand, developing biological weapons that can be modified precisely depending on the DNA. So if one wants to eliminate or ruin a part of society, he looks at the composition of DNA. We are unconsciously contributing to this war. The penetration of technology is much greater than it was 30 years ago and has made life easier but society more fragile. Today, those who control technology have a much greater influence on society. China is doing it with technologies linked to the Chinese PLA army, People Liberation Army.
These apps are developed with people who know psychology to create addiction in users. Addiction is a form of control that America uses for financial purposes while China for political ones which is more dangerous. There are laws but the problem is that they are not always the right answer. For example, there Is a law in Europe called the DSA, Digital Services Act, that says that social platforms must be controlled to prevent disinformation. But who decides what is misinformation? So there is a kind of authoritarian reaction to an authoritarian problem which is probably not the right answer. That there is misinformation is obvious. It’s everywhere. But it is the price to pay because otherwise the cost is that someone decides what is right and true for us. Which would be problematic because it would oppress our freedom. Education is essential. There has been a debate in the United States, among various influencers who said that the Holocaust did not exist. The only solution to misinformation is to study history.
- We wanted to end by asking you, considering these great changes, what advice would you give to families and young people in particular?
Look, from a practical point of view, of course, to know the world is very important because everyday life is much more influenced by what happens on the other side of the world than it was thirty years ago. There is a connection that is much wider and will probably increase. So knowing the world in some way, I think, is important. That doesn’t mean you always have to travel, but just study the history of other countries, which gives you a sense of how other countries have behaved and will probably behave. So open your horizons a little. Languages too, of course, everyone can and should speak English, but knowing languages gives you a knowledge of the culture and horizons of other countries and nations. So it is absolutely important. Then, from a professional point of view, the world is big, what you should do is follow your passion, not markets, because markets go up and down, passions are yours.
Resources:
https://www.limesonline.com/rivista/il-cuscinetto-ucraino-secondo-l-america-16589181/
https://politics.catholic.edu/faculty-and-research/faculty-profiles/grygiel-jakub/index.html
https://firstthings.com/a-pro-life-and-pro-family-u-s-foreign-aid-strategy/
https://www.ilfoglio.it/chiesa/2024/11/16/news/perche-i-cattolici-hanno-votato-trump-7154396/
